Why Donald Trump Will Win The Election
Brace yourself for the reality of it.
There’s an incredibly strong chance that Donald John Trump will win the election later this year. You don’t have to like it, but understand that you’re probably going to be pretty bummed out on the first Wednesday of November.
Understand that the odds are deeply stacked in his favour. It doesn’t matter how unpopular he is or whether the Democrats put up a strong challenger against him.
Pour yourself a beverage and consider the likelihood of another four years of this sh*tshow. This is what the Democrats are up against:
Electoral math and a divided America
Ultimately, it all comes down to math. Sorry -- nobody likes to hear that.
America, like Australia, has a representational voting system. It’s not about winning the highest number of votes, it’s about winning the most electoral votes. There are 538 electoral votes up for grabs, with every state weighted with a different number of votes. The candidate that wins on election night is the first candidate to have reached half the number of electoral votes. 270 is the magic number.
In 2016, Clinton may have won the popular vote (with 65.85 million votes vs Trump’s 62.99 million), but Trump won more electoral votes with 304 votes vs Clinton’s 227. The result: he got to become President while she went on to write a book.
So, what does that mean for an election this year? An uphill challenge.
America is divided culturally -- red states tend to stay red and blue states tend to stay blue -- so there are very few surprises in how states are going to vote. The purple swing states that need to be targeted have already been largely determined. Trump has very rarely gotten over his average of 43 percent support in the US (considered low for a President who presides over a country in such strong economic shape), but if his support is stronger in these battleground swing districts than in other states, the Democrats are in trouble. And evidence points to crucial states Florida and Wisconsin embracing their MAGA hats over the past four years.
When you’re watching the election, the states you want to keep an eye on are: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Specific combinations of winning these states are the pathway to victory. Any presidential hopeful who isn’t focused on winning these states may as well start writing their book now.
Evidence points to Russian interference in the 2016 elections. In this past week came news that both Trump and presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders have both been briefed about Russian efforts to muck around with the 2020 elections.
It is part of an effort to sow further division in the US and to create further distrust of election results. Russia is supporting Bernie because they can see how polarising a figure Sanders is with both Democratic and Republican voters. After several months of Democrats turning on each other ahead of the Democratic convention (where the party will nominate its candidate in the election), Sanders will then theoretically be used to create an even greater division between the red and blue states.
Russia isn’t only playing disinformation games on social media and stoking anger and distrust among voters -- it also has the ability to manipulate voting machines as well. That’s right -- in the US they use machines to vote.
So even if Russia doesn’t touch the voting machines, the seeds of doubt will have been planted.
An unprecedented propaganda machine
The 2016 election that saw Trump elected was supported by Fox News, but Trump also had a powerful network of other right-leaning news outlets like Breitbart and InfoWars supporting him. While InfoWars has been banned on Facebook, Breitbart's influence has been growing on the platform.
The digital campaign will be crucial in the upcoming election, but Trump is a creature of television. He understands the medium and has fully embraced Fox News. Routinely recording the channel, he watches key shows hosted by his most vocal supporters and spends time chatting with them on the phone after their shows finish. Any pretence of impartiality was completely eroded when Fox News talent, such as Sean Hannity and Jeanine Pirro appeared on stage at a Trump rally.
Never has a sitting US President been so heavily involved with the content broadcast by a TV network, effectively turning it into a powerful propaganda machine rivalled by no other. Sure, left-leaning viewers have left-wing news outlets and a TV presence with MSNBC, but they’re not the same. Only Fox News provides such a focused, unified voice that amplifies the political values of the Commander in Chief.
Trump is unbelievably lucky
Despite ill-fitting suits, overly long ties and scandal after scandal, Trump has gotten all the way to the top. Born into a life of wealth and privilege, he avoided fighting in the Vietnam War thanks to bone spurs. He’s made it past failed business ventures, casino bankruptcies and a fraudulent university (among other seemingly insurmountable obstacles) to lead a life seen by many as the embodiment of the American dream, moving effortlessly from property developer to TV star to US President. He landed the presidency at a time of great economic prosperity for the country without being tested by war or large-scale disaster.
They call him Teflon Don because nothing seems to stick to the guy. After a lifetime of repeatedly failing upwards, what makes you think that he can be stopped now?