Advertisement

All The Money Going One Way In Late Election Betting Twist

Throughout the election campaign, the odds for the Coalition have gradually gotten shorter, meaning they were statistically more likely to win.

But now?

The money for the Coalition has largely dried up and the whole thing has swung dramatically Labor's way.

TAB is offering odds of $1.17 for a Labor victory on election day. That means you'd make just $17 profit for every $100 you bet. The odds dipped as low as $1.15 on Friday after an onslaught of big bets.

"The serious money is starting to come in now, as it always does just before the election," TAB's election betting expert Gerard Daffy told 10 daily.

"We took one bet of $100,000 on Labor yesterday and two bets of $20,000."

READ MORE: Dollar Bill: Betting Agency Pays Labor Win BEFORE The Election

Scott Morrison Wants The 'Bogan' Vote
One of these men has a sensible haircut. You decide which. Photo: AAP.

Daffy said the Coalition still has its share of fans. There was one bet of $9000 on the Coalition at $5.25 on Friday, and enough smaller bets to tilt the scales slightly and bring the odds back into $5.

But the bottom line is that Labor is a very short-priced favourite. Run the election six times and Labor would win it five -- in statistical terms, that's what the odds mean.

Labor was $1.18 at the start of the campaign and the Coalition $5. The odds fluctuated quite strongly over the course of five weeks, and the Coalition's odds firmed to about $3.50. But we've pretty much ended up where we started.

READ MORE: Our Election Odds Story From April 11, Just After The Election Was Called

But here's the thing.

To win an election, you need to win seats. And the betting picture in seats across Australia is slightly more complicated. Indeed in many cases, it's Liberal candidates that punters have been backing.

"When we put the market up, in 24 seats where the encumbent MP was not favourite, 23 of those were Coalition candidates. Of those 23, a dozen have moved into equal favourite or favourite," Daffy said.

This is significant. Labor must take seats off the Coalition to win this election. Yet the betting suggests that there is strong support for encumbent Coalition candidates, and Labor may struggle to win as many seats as some people predict.

We'll know more by Saturday night. But for now, know this.

Heavily backed favourites have won the last six Australians Federal elections.

The odds in every sense are now on Labor's side.

Contact the author asharwood@networkten.com.au