Each Party Is One 'Stuff Up' Away From An Election Loss
By this point in the game, most pollsters have put down their numbers.
On the eve of the federal election, analyst James Stewart from major opinion company UComms, will be watching how closely the chips fall to his prediction models that have been built off months of polling data.
"It's going to be interesting to see where everything settles," Stewart told 10 daily.
At the moment, it's just too close to call.
Scott Morrison and Bill Shorten on Thursday offered their final pitch to voters, ahead of Saturday's poll.
With strong ties to the past, the Opposition leader repeatedly voiced his slogan "vote for change", as he listed Labor's policies on childcare, domestic violence, hospitals and cancer funding.
According to the latest Ipsos poll, released on the eve of the election, Labor is retaining its 51-49 percent lead over the Coalition on a two-party-preferred basis. One sports betting agency even taken the bold move of paying out bets on a Labor win.
But the gap between the two major parties has narrowed, with Labor down one point and the Coalition up one point since May 1-4.
As the latest YouGov/Galaxy polling of key seats, released on Thursday, suggest, we're in for a cliffhanger.
Stewart agreed, saying the election is "much closer" than what many had anticipated.
"It has narrowed from 54 down to about 51, and I predict it's going to hover around 51.5. How that plays out in seats is really unpredictable as there are so many in doubt."
Stewart's company UComm uses the robo-polling technology of pollster ReachTEL.
The analyst will be taking part in Network 10's election coverage on Saturday night -- and he'll have his eyes on several key seats in doubt:
Throughout the campaign, Stewart has seen similar issues resonate with voters when compared to the 2016 federal election, including housing affordability, health, tax policy, wages and cost of living.
Others have taken centre stage among certain demographics, with 18 to 34-year-olds demanding action on climate change.
"Housing affordability played well for this age group as well, but climate change still wins out," Stewart said.
But he noticed one key difference: a desire for change.
"Unfortunately for the Coalition, that could mean a blanket need for a change in government," he said.
"I'm not advocating for either side, but the constituency can be looking at a need for improved services, a need for a pay rise or issues with the housing market and when it comes down to it, whoever has the top job is to blame.
"If there's an opportunity for change, the one opportunity voters have right now is Saturday."
But despite a record number of pre-pollers, that reached more than three million people, Stewart warned the campaign isn't over.
"There's lots of online campaigning going on, still a lot of phone calls, YouTube ads and candidates standing at bus stops," he said.
"It takes one leader or candidate stuff up to change a seat."
With one full day left in the election cycle, who knows what will happen.
Listen to Hugh Riminton and Peter Van Onselen in The Professor and The Hack discuss all things #Auspol.
10 daily will live stream 10's #YourVote Election coverage from 3pm Saturday May 18. You can also watch on 10 or 10 play.