Forget The Polls, Here's Who The Bookies Say Will Win The Election
This thing ain't over by a long shot. But does money talk louder than polls?
Labor are really strong favourites to win the May 18 Federal Election. They're $1.18 with most bookies. Statistically, that means the likelihood of them forming government is 85 percent.
The Coalition? They're around $5 with most bookies, which is long odds in a two-horse race. But don't think that means they can't win.
Gerard Daffy from TAB is the godfather of election betting in Australia. He pioneered the practice, and has been betting on elections since the 1990s.
"Donald Trump was $5 a couple of weeks out from the 2016 presidential election, and the Brexit 'Yes' vote was similar odds, Daffy told 10 daily.
That's right. Both Trump and Brexit were almost exactly the same odds as the Coalition government are now.
So never mind those 50-plus consecutive poll losses. For Coalition supporters, there is hope. Indeed, Daffy says there's been quite a lot of money for them since the election was called earlier today.
The TAB opened betting on the Federal Election all the way back in February 2018, with Labor opening as the favourite at $1.50.
"It's a rarity anywhere around the world that an incumbent is not favourite," Daffy said.
"As all polls have pointed towards a Labor win, their odds have continued to shorten -- no pun intended!"
Daffy says the biggest upset he's seen in more than two decades of election betting was the 1999 Victorian election, in which Labor's Steve Bracks upset Jeff Kennett.
Kennett's Coalition was $1.03, which is shorter odds than Winx has ever been in her unbeaten 32-race winning streak.
That's proof that while odds are a guide, they're not everything. Upsets can happen. This thing is not over. But for now, the smart money is still on Labor forming government.