Can Peter Dutton Survive An Election In Dickson?
"He's on a knife's edge."
Peter Dutton won't be Prime Minister. But will he even be re-elected?
As an entire country watched in horror and amusement, the Queensland MP made not one but two failed leadership bids this week.
It was a bid to bring the Liberal party back towards the right, with plenty of fuss made about winning back Queensland votes that have been haemorrhaging to One Nation.
It failed. But the night before one of the most extraordinary days in Australian politics, someone threw a brick (or similar) at Dutton's office window in his Brisbane electorate.
A phone poll of 867 residents conducted on the same night his office was vandalised found that barely a third of his constituents support their local member for parliament.
The ReachTEL survey, commissioned by he Construction Forestry Maritime Mining and Energy Union, asked voters: "Do you support or oppose Peter Dutton's attempts to displace Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister?"
Just 37.6 percent of respondents said they supported the challenge. A total of 52.5 percent opposed the decision, including 38.9 percent who strongly opposed it.
Not all that surprisingly, the strongest supporters came from One Nation voters, while the strongest opponents came from the Greens.
Dutton has held the seat of Dickson since 2001, including through the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd years when the Coalition lost government. But it hasn't always been easy: he held onto his seat by a sliver of 217 votes in 2007, and at one point even proposed -- unsuccessfully -- running in a different seat.
Do you support or oppose Peter Dutton's attempts to displace Malcolm Turnbull as Prime Minister?
A GetUp campaign to oust Dutton has been running in Dickson for months. It's not the first time GetUp has run this campaign, but this time around they're using learnings from the successful marriage equality campaign.
“One of the core tactics was people from around Australian having phone calls with other votes, encouraging them to put in their ‘Yes’ votes [to the postal survey],” Ellen Roberts, who's heading up the campaign, told ten daily.
“People were encouraged to talk about why marriage equality was important to them, the issues for their family or themselves.
"It was really about connecting with the other person on the phone and saying, this is really important to me.”
Campaigners ten daily spoke to cited dozens of Dutton's big misses throughout his political career: boycotting the apology to the Stolen Generation, his overseeing of Manus Island and Nauru, his 'African gangs' comments among them.
But they also spoke of an abandonment by Dutton, who's busy down in Canberra.
"He's usually absent except for election campaigns," said Anthony Smith, one of the Dickson residents working with GetUp.
"He's got a caravan that we only see when there's an election on the horizon, but it's more of a mobile billboard. He doesn't actually man it."
Labor is having a strong go at it in Dickson.
They announced Labor legacy Ali France -- her dad is former Labor MP Peter Lawlor -- all the way back in March, and she's been campaigning on a platform of healthcare, education and infrastructure ever since.
For what it's worth, the Greens are also running with an 'anti-Dutton' candidate: international human rights lawyer Benedict Coyne.
"We will be campaigning on restoring integrity within our democracy, by banning corrupting corporate donations," he told ten daily.
Before this week's leadership crisis, campaigners told ten daily that the margin in Dickson was down to just 2,000 votes.
But now, with a country utterly sick of the political machinations and an election looming, it could be even less.
"It's down to a tiny margin," another campaigner, Chris Goss, told ten daily earlier this year.
"He's on a knife's edge."