If Lockdown Seems Like An Overreaction, That Means It's Working

There’s a strange coronavirus argument pinballing around Australia.

Like most intellectual arguments in Australia’s marketplace of ideas, it’s one that originated in the United States and slowly made its way over, before being reheated, spruced up, and presented as new.

‘This coronavirus isn’t as bad as those egghead Chicken Little doctors predicted,’ the argument goes. ‘Time to open the economy back up.’

This, respected UNSW adjunct professor Bill Bowtell told me this week, is the “paradox of prevention” -- when strategies work to mitigate a disaster, some reckon there was nothing to fear in the first place. Social distancing and business shutdowns were an “overreaction” to the pandemic, came one argument this week, because only 60 people had died at that point.

Granted, it’s hard to look at the effects of a cyclone, or a flood, or a fire -- or a once-in-a-century pandemic -- and imagine what might have been if not for mitigation work.

But it doesn’t make the argument any less bogus or bone-headed.

We don’t look at declining lives lost to drink driving as an argument against breath testing and tough rules. To say prevention measures are unnecessary because numbers are low is to ignore that prevention measures are the reason numbers are low.

As one person put it to me: “If it’s raining and your umbrella keeps you dry, you don’t stop using it because you are dry. You keep using it until you can stay dry without using it.”

Public health experts say Australia’s relatively low coronavirus toll is directly due to our restrictions, and that relaxing rules too early could see cases skyrocket higher than our last peak.

On Thursday, Scott Morrison warned, “If you ease off too quickly… the health response gets out of control, then the economic consequences will be even worse.”

Some say our health system is prepared enough to withstand a spike in cases, so we can reopen the economy with little worry. Tell that to Chief Medical Officer Dr Brendan Murphy, who warned of Britain or United States-level outbreaks here.

“We are not confident just yet that we have a public health system that is so completely prepared that we can guarantee to government that we will be able to deal with any outbreak,” he said on Thursday. “We just have to hold the course while we get ourselves completely ready."

Raina MacIntyre, professor of global biosecurity at the University of NSW, told me "a large bounceback” may arise that could “potentially be larger than before”.

Yet still, opinionistas persist in pushing for restrictions to be relaxed now. Echoing Shrek’s Lord Farquaad -- “some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice I am willing to make” -- they say the economy must be prioritised over all, and while it may cost lives, it’s a dice worth rolling -- because, as one argument went, some older people will acknowledge that they've “had a good run".

There is, of course, merit in the pure economic argument. A million people are out of work, the government is blowing billions on bailout packages, and entire industries may not recover for years. There is an economic emergency wrapped in a health one, and legitimate fears the long-term hangover -- unemployment, poverty, debt -- may hurt more than the virus.

But it fails to grasp the brutal health reality -- that easing lockdowns would lead to deaths right now.

Let’s leave aside that these arguments are coming from middle-aged wonks, not actually from the elderly Australians shoved forward for sacrifice on the altar of capitalism. For a start, we do not know the long-term effects the virus will leave on even mild cases. Bowtell voiced fears of lingering issues with the brain, lungs and kidneys.

“This is not flu, this is SARS 2,” he gravely warned.

It’s not as simple as hoping people get the ‘mild’ version.

And the argument isn’t even just about grandpa, who has had “a good run” and is willing to shuffle off this mortal coil to open the pubs quicker. He may volunteer to risk infection -- but what about the mum he infects at the supermarket? The grandchild who takes the virus to school and infects their teacher? What about people with chronic illness, immunodeficiencies, for whom one of those “mild” cases could become something far darker?

Yes, most of Australia’s deaths have been older people with pre-existing medical issues. But that’s not the case globally, where thousands of young, healthy people with decades of life left are sick or dead. Could a reason we haven’t seen such devastation be due to our “over-reaction” restrictions?

The youngest Australian death was a man in his 50s. Even now, this is not a disease confined to the elderly.

In the latest 24-hour statistics from the federal health department, Australia recorded just 21 new cases of coronavirus. That’s a huge drop from the peak, and cause for great encouragement. But more than 200 infected remain hospitalised, with 70 on ventilators. Despite 380,000 tests nationwide, we still don’t know how many asymptomatic infected are out there, spreading the virus unknowingly.

The virus needs to be stopped in its tracks. This cake can’t be taken out of the oven early.

Lifting restrictions too early, we’re told, could start a fresh outbreak -- essentially wasting our progress and sacrifice, forcing us back to the beginning with a fresh set of lockdowns.

It’s the last thing anyone wants. It’s certainly not what business would want.

“There is no acceptable limit to COVID infection,” Bowtell said.

So, the question is, what now? When do we say ‘we’ve done enough, time to get out?’ Sadly, there’s no hard answer. Our experts have no magic number, no special milestone, no specific finish line to see the lockdowns automatically lifted. Governments are still formulating exit strategies, a way back. What that exactly looks like, not even the foremost experts know. But what is known, by health officials and esteemed epidemiologists, is it’s far too early to talk about lifting lockdowns.

We will be dealing with this for some time. Relaxing now could put us back where we started, or worse. There is no time for complacency. We need to keep beating this thing.